The Indonesia Composite (IHSG) closed 6,162.04 on 22 May (+1.10%), bouncing off an intraday capitulation low of 5,966.86 — the 6,000 psychological floor was tested and held on close. Five-session sequence: Mon 19 May 6,370 (−3.46%), Tue 20 May 6,318.5 (−0.82% on BI 50bp surprise), Wed 21 May 6,094.94 (−3.54%), Fri 22 May 6,162.04 (+1.10%, intraday low 5,967). Week-on-week: −6.6% from 6,599 (18 May open). The Friday tape delivered the cleanest single signal of the week: equities tested 6,000 in panic, the bid showed up, and the index closed back above the floor — textbook signature of a tradable short-term capitulation. Bear conditions persist (foreign net selling YTD > Rp 51T, three-agency negative outlooks, Prabowo single-gate export friction), but the floor-test bounce is meaningful bull confirmation evidence. FX continues to hold (JISDOR 17,677, spot 17,695) — cross-asset divergence intact. Probability weights unchanged pending a confirmed sub-6,000 close (2-session rule).
v2.6.28 — 4 Jul 2026 (Sat) MATERIAL / BULL-CONFIRM — fourth up-session, kill line cleared on the close: IHSG 2-Jul 5,744.56 → 3-Jul CLOSE 5,875.78 (+2.28%), +4.1% off the 30-Jun 5,643 low, clear of both the 5,746 structural-kill line and the 29-Jun 5,820.79 close, ~24pt under the 5,900 flush-verdict line. Mechanism: the soft US June jobs print (+57k vs ~110k consensus, −74k revisions — BLS 2-Jul, primary) cut Fed Sept-hike odds ~64%→~50% and dropped the DXY to ~100.8 — a global-risk-on / lower-discount-rate impulse on top of the domestic LNG-cut + B50 policy tape. Counter-evidence: the foreign bid is STILL the missing piece — through end-June the ~US$9bn foreign inflow went to SBN/SRBI, not equities; a domestic-liquidity rally without foreign participation has historically faded (moderate confidence on persistence). Per Step 6 the 30-Jun/1-Jul two-close <5,746 break stays RECORDED and does NOT un-fire without >5,900 held + three foreign net-buy sessions; SPOT_FALLBACK 5,745→5,876; no weight change this run. v2.6.27 — 3 Jul 2026 (Fri) MATERIAL — recovery back above the kill line: IHSG 1-Jul 5,695.12 → 2-Jul close 5,744.56 (+0.87%) → 3-Jul intraday ~5,849 (+1.8%), +3.6% off the 30-Jun 5,643 low and back above both the 5,746 structural-kill line and the 29-Jun 5,820 close. Mechanism: policy cost-relief — industrial LNG cut to ~$13/MMBtu from ~$20–23 (Bahlil, 29-Jun, direct Prabowo directive — primary gov't statement) — plus the B50 nationwide launch (1-Jul) lifting basic materials / energy / infrastructure, amplified by US–Iran Doha de-escalation risk-on. Counter-evidence: the foreign bid is still ABSENT on equities (continued net-sell; the ~US$9bn end-June foreign inflow went to SBN/SRBI, not stocks) — a domestic-liquidity bounce without foreign participation has historically faded (moderate confidence on persistence). The 30-Jun/1-Jul two-close <5,746 break stays RECORDED per Step 6; no weight change this run. Distributional: LNG cut — winners = gas-intensive manufacturers (ceramics, glass, steel, petchem TPIA/BRPT, fertilizer); cost bearers = PGAS/upstream netbacks + the fiscal burden-share. B50 — winners = upstream CPO (AALI/LSIP/DSNG) + FAME processors; losers = food-use CPO buyers on a tighter domestic surplus. Kill/falsification: reclaim >5,900 holding + foreign net-buy = the break was a flush (bear-redeploy shelved); a fresh close <5,643 = bear regime confirmed.
v2.6.26 — 2 Jul 2026 (Thu) MATERIAL — the <5,746 structural kill FIRED; June CPI fuel-shock at 3.34%. BLUF — IHSG broke the <5,746 structural-kill line decisively — close 5,643.19 on 30-Jun (−3.05%) and 5,695.12 on 1-Jul (both below the line), with a partial recovery in progress (2-Jul intraday ~5,750, +1.0%; today's low 5,704.50, Yahoo ^JKSE). Separately, June CPI printed 3.34% YoY (+0.44% MoM) — BPS 1-Jul, primary — driven by the 10-Jun Pertamax +32.1% administered-fuel hike in a month that is usually low-inflation. Mechanism (gate 2): two channels — (i) the equity leg finally broke the kill line on the carried MSCI active-confidence re-rating + a firmer dollar (DXY ~101.3–101.6, testing a 15-month high on a hawkish Fed), lifting the EM discount rate on a ~30%-banks index; (ii) the fuel-driven CPI acceleration toward the top of BI's 1.5–3.5% band tightens the real-rate path and squeezes consumer-staples/discretionary margins (ICBP/INDF/MYOR/AMRT/MAPI class). Magnitude (gate 4): the <5,746 kill is confirmed on two closes (~−2.5 to −4% below the reference) — the trigger the audit gated the bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy on; if it holds it points to the IG-to-IG band (−8 to −12% net 12m), the IG-to-HY tail (−20 to −30%) the less-likely severe case. Confidence: HIGH on the closes + CPI print, MODERATE on persistence (a same-week +1.0% recovery is live). Counter-evidence (gate 3): IHSG is already bouncing off the 30-Jun low (5,643 → 5,695 → ~5,750) and IDR has NOT broken the 18,070 bear-confirm (17,961, ECB 1-Jul) — so this is not yet a cross-asset BoP break; a reclaim >5,900 holding with the foreign bid back would refute the regime read. Distributional (gate 6): CPI winner — the fiscal balance / Pertamina margin on the fuel repricing; loser — household real income and the consumer-goods complex; equity winner — patient domestic/BPJS books getting a lower entry, short-sellers of the bank weights. Kill (gate 7): a sustained hold <5,746 (2–3 more sessions) = bear regime confirmed and the redeploy becomes executable; a reclaim >5,900 holding = the break was a flush and the recovery has legs. SPOT_FALLBACK 5,862 → 5,695. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 and the deferred bear 38→22 redeploy both UNCHANGED — Step 6 bars a weight shift on a same-week partial recovery even with the kill fired; the weekly audit now has a two-close line-break to ratify. [Prior callouts retained below for history.]
v2.6.23 — 27 Jun 2026 (Sat) MATERIAL (final 26-Jun close; IDX closed Sat — no live weekend tape). BLUF — The 25-Jun rebound was a bull trap: IHSG fell −2.28% to 5,862 on 26-Jun (Trading Economics — secondary), erasing the entire +2.41% bounce and printing the lowest close of the MSCI episode, with broad-based selling across all major sectors. Mechanism (gate 2): a same-week round-trip that ends below the crash low is the signature of a regime re-rating, not a clean leveraged flush — the MSCI active-confidence discount (November-consultation-toward-Frontier overhang) is re-dominating, compounded by large-cap profit-taking on the ~30%-banks index. Magnitude (gate 4): the >6,100 confirm stays decisively lost (~240pt above), the 6,000 floor breached, and the <5,746 structural kill is now ~116pt / 2.0% away (un-fired but closing). Confidence: HIGH on the close, MODERATE on whether 5,746 breaks. Counter-evidence (gate 3): IDR decoupled (firmed to ~17,859) and the IndoGB curve has not gapped — so this is still an equity-specific confidence event, not a cross-asset BoP break; a reclaim >6,000 holding would refute the regime read. Distributional (gate 6): winner — patient domestic/BPJS/pension books getting a second, lower entry; loser — those who chased the 25-Jun bounce and leveraged dip-buyers. Kill (gate 7): a <5,746 close = bear regime confirmed and the deferred bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy becomes live; a reclaim >6,000 holding with foreign bid back = bull-trap read was wrong. SPOT_FALLBACK → 5,862. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 and the deferred 38→22 redeploy both UNCHANGED — Step 6 bars a weight shift on an unconfirmed regime; flagged for the weekly audit, which now has a two-session lower-low to weigh. [Prior callouts retained below for history.]
v2.6.22 — 26 Jun 2026 (Fri) MATERIAL (event-window follow-through: the −3.56% flush is partially retraced). BLUF — IHSG rebounded +2.41% to ~6,026 on 25-Jun (Trading Economics — secondary), reclaiming the psychological 6,000 floor it lost in the 24-Jun crash, with all sectors green (transport/healthcare/energy/infrastructure; Barito +6.6%, Indah Kiat +4.9%, Astra +3.0%). Mechanism (gate 2): a same-week V-bounce off a single-session confidence crash is the textbook signature of a flush (forced/leveraged selling exhausting) rather than a regime (sustained discount-rate re-rating); supporting this, the dollar headwind eased at the margin — DXY off its high to ~101.5 and CME Sept-hike odds slipping ~68%→62% after softer US GDP-revision/jobless-claims prints (CNBC — secondary) — which lifts the EM discount-rate compression a touch. Magnitude (gate 4): +2.41% recovers roughly two-thirds of the −3.56% crash; the >6,100 flush-and-reverse confirm is STILL un-reclaimed (~75pt above), and the <5,746 structural kill is now ~280pt away. Confidence: MODERATE — one rebound session does not confirm a base; the MSCI November-consultation-toward-Frontier overhang and the foreign-flow picture are unresolved. Counter-evidence (gate 3): if foreigners resume net-selling and IHSG fails <6,000 again, the "flush" read breaks and the active-confidence re-rating re-dominates. Distributional (gate 6): winner — domestic/BPJS books that re-entered into the 24-Jun air-pocket and dip-buying retail; loser — those who capitulated at the 5,884 low. Kill (gate 7): reclaim >6,100 holding with foreign bid back = flush fully spent, redeploy debate reopens; a fresh <5,746 = bear regime confirmed, weight-shift eligible. SPOT_FALLBACK → 6,026. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 and the deferred bear 38→22 redeploy both UNCHANGED — no re-weight on a one-session bounce (Step 6); flag for the weekly audit. [Prior callouts retained below for history.]
v2.6.21 — 25 Jun 2026 (Thu) MATERIAL (the >6,100 confirm broke — −3.56% confidence flush). BLUF — The knife's-edge resolved DOWN: IHSG −3.56% (−217pt) to 5,883.88 on 24-Jun — worst session since the MSCI review — then a ~+1.1% bounce to ~5,951 intraday 25-Jun. Mechanism (gate 2): the market re-read the MSCI verdict as a net negative — despite EM-maintain, MSCI flagged free-float validity, ownership opacity and coordinated-trading and warned of a November-2026 consultation toward Frontier if reforms lag (BRIDS/Kompas; UGM economist "confidence crisis" — secondary). The EM→frontier tail thus converted from passive-redemption risk into an active-confidence re-rating that lifts the EM equity discount rate; with the dollar firm (DXY ~101.6, Sept-hike odds ~68%) foreigners are de-risking the ~30%-banks index, not just trimming. Large-cap profit-taking (BBRI, BMRI, AMMN, BRMS, SMMA) led the fall. Magnitude (gate 4): >6,100 confirm decisively lost and psychological 6,000 breached, BUT the <5,746 structural kill is still ~138pt un-fired and the 25-Jun bounce holds >5,900. Confidence: HIGH on the print, MODERATE on whether −3.56% is a flush or a leg-lower. Counter-evidence (gate 3): a single-session crash with an immediate bounce, coal/CPO decoupling intact, and no balance-of-payments break argues flush, not regime; sustained foreign selling + a <5,746 break would refute that. Distributional (gate 6): loser — leveraged domestic retail + index-heavy bank holders; winner — patient domestic/BPJS books getting a cheaper re-entry, and short-sellers of the large-cap weights. Kill (gate 7): <5,746 = bear re-dominates / weight-shift eligible; reclaim >6,000 holding = flush spent, redeploy debate reopens. SPOT_FALLBACK → 5,884 (24-Jun close; ~5,951 intraday 25-Jun). The 15-Jun audit's bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy is CONCLUSIVELY DEFERRED — you do not cut bear weight into a confidence-crisis crash. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged; NO weight shift this run (Step 6); flag for the weekly audit. [Prior callouts retained below for history.]
v2.6.20 — 24 Jun 2026 (Wed) MATERIAL (catalyst resolved; tape fails to confirm): MSCI keeps EM, but a hawkish-Fed dollar replaces the MSCI tail as the binding constraint. BLUF — The long-gated binary cleared to the bull branch — MSCI maintained Indonesia in Emerging Market (Accessibility Review: 17 of 18 indicators unchanged, only Information-Flow cut +→−; 11 names clear the size/liquidity bar vs a 1-name minimum, so the single-pillar yellow card cannot force reclassification — Kontan/Kompas/IDNFinancials, secondary on the MSCI release), removing the ~US$13bn mechanical-passive-outflow tail the redeploy was gated on. Mechanism (gate 2): the audit's bull premise was that EM-reaffirmation returns the foreign bid; instead the 23-Jun onshore tape drifted −0.25% to ~6,101 with foreigners still net-selling, because a hawkish-Fed/dollar breakout (DXY 100→~101.3, Sept-hike odds ~29%→68%) lifts the EM equity discount rate (Rey global-financial-cycle; CAPM) and keeps the ~30%-banks index under distribution — the discount-rate channel now dominates the passive-flow channel. Magnitude (gate 4): the >6,100 flush-and-reverse confirm is at the knife's edge (~1pt margin vs 6,100; kill <5,746 far off) — the relief bought no upside, only removed a downside tail. Confidence: HIGH on the facts, MODERATE on the tape read (one soft session). Counter-evidence (gate 3): EM-maintain is itself the structural bull leg, and coal/CPO firmness supports the ~30% commodity complex; a soft US-data run that re-prices the dots dovish flips the dollar and unblocks the redeploy. Distributional (gate 6): winner — the bank-heavy index spared forced selling, domestic/BPJS books that avoid absorbing a mechanical foreign dump; loser — rate-sensitive banks/financials repricing higher-for-longer as the dollar firms. Kill (gate 7): bull-confirm — a >6,100 hold with the foreign bid returning = the audit's bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy becomes executable; bear-confirm — a <5,746 break = the rally round-trips. SPOT_FALLBACK updated 6,172.34 → 6,101. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged. NO weight shift this run — the EM-clear satisfied the trigger but the hawkish-Fed regime makes the net ambiguous; Step 6 bars re-weighting into ambiguity, so the redeploy + idr+idx pill resync stay DEFERRED for the weekly audit to execute once the dollar regime's direction is clearer. [Prior callouts retained below for history.]
v2.6.17 — 21 Jun 2026 (Sun) COSMETIC (weekend, IDX/onshore closed): no new catalyst. The 24h pre-scan returned no orchestrator-routable event (the early-June Moody's/Fitch/S&P Danantara actions remain captured). IHSG carries the 19-Jun close 6,177.14 — the >6,100 confirm holds, kill <5,746 far off; the BI 5.75% funding-cost cross-current for a ~30%-banks index is unchanged. The binary is T-2: the MSCI Annual Classification verdict (23-Jun NY / 24-Jun WIB) — a clean EM reaffirmation makes the 15-Jun audit's bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy executable and unblocks the idr+idx pill resync; an EM→frontier downgrade arms up to ~US$13bn of mechanical passive selling. Redeploy stays DEFERRED until MSCI clears. NO weight change this run.
v2.6.16 — 20 Jun 2026 (Sat) COSMETIC (weekend, IDX closed): no new catalyst. IHSG last ~6,177 (19-Jun, Yahoo ^JKSE) — the >6,100 confirm holds; the BI 5.75% funding-cost cross-current for a ~30%-banks index is unchanged. Mon 23-Jun MSCI Annual Classification is the binary: a frontier downgrade is now sized at up to ~US$13bn potential outflows. The 15-Jun audit’s bear 38→22 (~6,350) redeploy stays DEFERRED until MSCI clears. NO weight change this run.
v2.6.15 — 19 Jun 2026 (Fri) CATALYST (monetary, orchestrator-routed): BI hikes to 5.75% — a funding-cost headwind for a ~30%-banks index, but IHSG holds >6,100. BLUF — BI's RDG raised the BI-Rate
+25bp to 5.75% on 18-Jun (the third hike in a month). IHSG eased −0.78% to
6,172.34 — the >6,100 confirm HELD (kill <5,746 far off). The hike cuts two ways for equities: a near-term funding-cost / NIM headwind for banks (~30% of the index) against a longer-term currency defence the foreign bid needs. Confidence HIGH on the decision, MODERATE on the equity transmission.
Pass 1 — Fact base (primary): BI RDG 17–18 Jun, BI-Rate to
5.75% (deposit facility 4.75%, lending facility 6.50%) —
bi.go.id (primary); Jakarta Globe/Databoks (secondary). IHSG 6,172.34 (Yahoo ^JKSE close, vs 6,220.74 prior).
Pass 2 — Mechanism & magnitude (gates 2, 4): Higher policy rate → (i) higher equity discount rate, a headwind to the whole tape; (ii) bank funding-cost up faster than asset repricing, compressing NIM near-term — material because banks are ~30% of the IHSG (NOT 51%, which is the MSCI Indonesia weight); (iii) offset, a rate floor that supports bank net-interest income later and defends the rupiah foreigners require to stay. Net realised: −0.78%, well inside any hawkish-hike band, the >6,100 confirm intact.
Pass 3 — Counter-evidence / falsification (gate 3): Bull — today's US–Iran signing (Brent ~$78.4) supports the ~30%-commodity/energy complex and the importer-margin names, and a benign 23-Jun MSCI keeps Indonesia EM, removing the passive-outflow tail. Bear — a 23-Jun MSCI downgrade or watch triggers mechanical foreign passive selling the hike cannot offset; a break <5,746 falsifies the >6,100 hold.
Pass 4 — Comparable (gate 4): 20-May 50bp surprise hike — IHSG diverged (IDR-supportive but a bank/discount-rate drag); 9-Jun off-cycle hike — IHSG flush-and-reversed +7.57%. The index has tolerated the prior two hikes; the swing factor now is MSCI, not the rate.
Distributional (gate 6): Loser — leveraged/high-duration growth names and bank NIM near-term. Winner — commodity/energy exporters on the signing, and the whole index if 23-Jun MSCI confirms EM status (passive-flow tail removed).
Decision-useful close (gate 7): If IHSG holds >6,100 through today's signing and 23-Jun MSCI confirms EM, the audit's bull redeploy (bear 38→22, ~6,350) becomes executable. If MSCI cuts/watches or IHSG breaks <5,746, the redeploy is wrong and the structural bear re-dominates.
SPOT_FALLBACK updated 6,144.49 → 6,172.34. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged.
NO weight shift this run — pill resync stays deferred until the 23-Jun MSCI verdict clears. [Prior FOMC catalyst callout retained below for history.]
v2.6.14 — 18 Jun 2026 (Thu) CATALYST (monetary, orchestrator-routed): Warsh's first FOMC delivers a HAWKISH hold — the bear re-arm the prior callout named fires. BLUF — The FOMC held 3.50–3.75% (12-0) on 17-Jun, but the SEP raised the median 2026 dot 3.4%→3.8% — 9 of 18 now see ≥1 hike, the last projected cut was pushed into 2027–28, on the durability of the Iran-war inflation spike (federalreserve.gov statement + SEP — primary; Warsh's debut). IHSG, the high-beta rate-channel expression at ~30% banks, gave back: eased 6,254.97→~6,144 over 16–17 Jun and opened ~6,191 risk-off (18-Jun); DXY 99.69. Mechanism (gate 2): the prior callout's named bear re-arm — "a hawkish Warsh dot plot dragging the tape back" — transmitted directly. A higher US real-yield path lifts the EM equity discount rate and compresses the rate-sensitive banks/financials that lead the index (Rey global-financial-cycle; CAPM discount-rate channel); transmission near-immediate. Magnitude (gate 4): realised give-back ~−1.8% from the 6,254.97 peak to the ~6,144 close and a soft ~6,191 open — inside the LOWER half of the −3 to −6% hawkish-surprise give-back band named in advance; the >6,100 confirm HELD (6,144/6,191 both >6,100; kill <5,746 nowhere near). Confidence: HIGH on the FOMC facts, MODERATE on the equity transmission — one soft open, BI RDG lands this afternoon. Counter-evidence (gate 3): Brent's 5th straight down session to ~$80.8 keeps the commodity/importer sector leg (which led the +7.26% rally) supportive — so the index has a live bull cross-current, not a one-way bear; and the >6,100 hold says the de-escalation floor is intact. Distributional (gate 6): losers — rate-sensitive banks/financials repricing higher-for-longer; winners — commodity/exporter names on the cheap-oil + DHE leg, and any name with USD revenue as the dollar firms. Kill (gate 7): bear-confirm — a close <5,746 within 2–3 sessions = the rally fully round-trips and the bear pill re-dominates; bull-rescue — a hold >6,100 through BI RDG + a clean 19-Jun signature = the de-escalation floor survives the Fed and the redeploy thesis is back on. Weights — the 15-Jun audit marked idx bear 38→22 (~6,350) REDEPLOY WARRANTED, but the hawkish dots argue that redeploy is EARLY. This daily does NOT rewrite the structural pill into BI RDG; re-pricing hours before the decision is the exact whipsaw the audit warned against. Recommend the live idr+idx pill resync wait until BOTH the BI RDG (today PM) and the 19-Jun signing clear, and that the audit's bull-lean be re-tested against the new hawkish-Fed path (top action item). [Prior catalyst callout retained below for history.]
v2.6.12 — 16 Jun 2026 (Tue) MATERIAL (the pre-named bull arbiter fired): >6,100 confirmed on a close. BLUF — IHSG closed 6,254.97 +4.12% on 15-Jun, breaking and holding the >6,100 flush-and-reverse line the framework had pre-committed — +16.4% off the 8-Jun 5,342 low, a full round-trip. Breadth was broad and de-escalation-led: commodities +7.26%, financials +5.23%, industrials +4.51%, 10 of 11 sectors green. Mechanism (gate 2): two channels fired together — (1) discount-rate relief, as Brent fell −4.7% to $83.17 and the rupiah firmed through 17,850, easing the imported-inflation path BI would otherwise hike against; (2) EM risk-premium compression into an index that is ~30% banks, the highest-beta expression of that relief. The US–Iran signing is now firmed for Fri 19-Jun Geneva. Magnitude (gate 4): the +4.12% close clears the arbiter cleanly; the realised move is the upper tail of the deep-drawdown mean-reversion band the framework preserved. Confidence: MODERATE-HIGH on the confirm, MODERATE on persistence — the same-week FOMC (Warsh's first, decision today/17-Jun), BI RDG (17–18), and MSCI review (19) can all still re-rate the tape. Counter-evidence (gate 3): a separate full-day foreign net-sell figure circulated against the Session-1 net buy (+Rp257.8bn) — flag as unreconciled; a rally on local bid with foreigners still distributing is lower-quality than one they lead. And gold rose alongside equities, a real-rate signal that warns the Fed leg is not yet resolved. Distributional (gate 6): winners — high-beta banks/rate-sensitives, commodity names on the +7.26% sector lead, importers/consumer on fuel relief; losers — oil-linked exporter translation, short-vol/hedged books. Kill (gate 7): bull-confirm — a hold >6,100 through the FOMC; bear re-arm — a hawkish Warsh dot plot or a 19-Jun signing slip dragging the tape back <5,746. Weights — the 15-Jun weekly audit revised idx bear 38→22 (central tendency ~6,350) and marked REDEPLOY WARRANTED, also flagging that the LIVE pill still shows the stale May-20 string (Bull 28–35/Base 50–55/Bear 12–18, ~6,650) — the network's #1 governance red flag. This daily does NOT rewrite the structural pill mid-event: the audit rated magnitude MODERATE pending this week's FOMC→RDG→MSCI triple-event, and re-pricing hours before Warsh's first dot plot is the exact whipsaw the audit warned against. Resync recommended immediately after the FOMC/signing window clears (top action item). [Prior catalyst callout retained below for history.]
v2.6.11 — 15 Jun 2026 (Mon) CATALYST (geopolitical resolution): Trump declares the US–Iran deal "now complete"; formal signing Fri 19-Jun. Over the weekend Trump said the agreement is "now complete" and ordered the naval blockade of Iran's ports ended in exchange for free Hormuz flow (RFE/RL, Axios, Times of Israel — secondary on a primary statement). The binary advanced but did not fully execute: the deal did not sign Sunday as Trump had predicted — the formal signing ceremony is now Fri 19-Jun in Switzerland (electronic). Onshore tape is shut at run time, so IHSG carries 6,007.66. Mechanism: the 12-Jun +2.07% reclaim was already priced on the de-escalation bid; a declared-complete deal + ordered blockade-end firms that foundation — discount-rate relief (Brent at a ~2-month low eases the imported-inflation path BI would hike against) plus EM risk-premium compression into a market that is ~30% banks. But the externals still gate the tape: hot US PPI (6.5%) keeps the Fed channel armed into the 16–17 Jun FOMC — Kevin Warsh's first as Chair, an added policy-uncertainty premium (DXY ~99.8), and the 11-Jun domestic prints (retail −3.7%, Pertamax +32.1%) keep the earnings side soft under the rally. Magnitude: the pre-named arbiter is unchanged — a >6,100 close = flush-and-reverse CONFIRMED; a Monday-open de-escalation gap would most plausibly test it, while a signing slip/collapse re-arms the oil channel for a reasoned −3 to −6% give-back. Confidence: MODERATE — declared, not signed; resolves across the 16–19 Jun window. Distributional: winners — high-beta banks and rate-sensitives, importers/consumer complex (fuel-cost relief if Brent holds <$90); losers — oil-linked exporters (MEDC-class translation), short-vol hedges. Kill signals: >6,100 close = confirmation (bull); fade <5,746 or signing collapse = the bid was rented (bear). NO structural weight change — Mon 15-Jun audit + the signing watch + the FOMC/MSCI window decide. [Superseded callout retained below for history.]
v2.6.10 — 14 Jun 2026 (Sun) CATALYST (signature imminent): Trump says the US–Iran deal SIGNS TODAY. On 13-Jun (Sat) Trump announced the deal is "scheduled to get signed tomorrow [Sun 14-Jun], and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL" (Trump statement — primary, via CBS/CNBC/NBC); the final draft text was agreed 12-Jun (NBC). A senior official puts odds ~80%; Tehran is "cautious on timing." Weekend markets are shut, so IHSG carries 6,007.66 with no fresh print. Mechanism: the 12-Jun +2.07% reclaim was already priced on the de-escalation BID; an actual signature + Hormuz reopening converts that bid into a CONFIRMED foundation — discount-rate relief (Brent toward $85 eases the imported-inflation path BI would hike against) plus EM risk-premium compression flowing into a market that is ~30% banks. But signature is announced, not executed, and the externals still gate the tape: hot US PPI (6.5%) keeps the Fed channel armed into 16–17 Jun (DXY ~100.6), and the 11-Jun domestic prints (retail −3.7%, Pertamax +32.1%) keep the earnings side soft under the rally. Magnitude: the pre-named arbiter is unchanged — a >6,100 close = flush-and-reverse CONFIRMED; a Monday-open signature gap would most plausibly test it, while a talks collapse re-arms the oil channel for a reasoned −3 to −6% give-back of the de-escalation leg. Confidence: MODERATE — binary resolves within hours/days. Distributional: winners — high-beta banks and rate-sensitives, importers/consumer complex (fuel-cost relief if Brent holds <$90); losers — oil-linked exporters (MEDC-class translation), short-vol hedges. Kill signals: >6,100 close = confirmation (bull); fade <5,746 or deal collapse = the bid was rented (bear). NO structural weight change — Mon 15-Jun audit + the signature watch + the FOMC/MSCI window decide.
v2.6.9 — 13 Jun 2026 (Sat) material (close +2.07% > 1.5% threshold; geopolitical catalyst): 6,000 reclaimed on the de-escalation bid. IHSG closed 12-Jun at 6,007.66 +2.07% (high 6,074.07 — within 0.4% of the 6,100 arbiter; Yahoo ^JKSE machine series — primary-adjacent), the first close above 6,000 since the early-June crash and +12.5% cumulative off the 8-Jun 5,342 low. Mechanism: geopolitical risk-premium compression — Trump cancelled scheduled strikes on Iran (11-Jun) and flagged a peace deal "soon" (NBC/NPR — Trump statements primary); Brent fell >4% to ~$89 (terms-of-trade relief for a net oil importer), global equities added ~2%, and the rupiah firmed to ECB 17,788 — equity discount-rate relief and FX-translation relief arriving simultaneously, layered ON TOP of the domestic policy floor (BI 5.50% + buyback expectation). Caveats that keep this a bid, not a confirmation: the deal is unsigned and its terms publicly disputed (Trump vs Mehr draft, 12-Jun — CNBC), Hormuz remains shut until signature, the hot US PPI (6.5%) holds the Fed channel armed into 16–17 Jun (DXY +0.66% to a 1.75-month high the same session), and the 11-Jun domestic prints (retail −3.7%, Pertamax +32.1%) still argue the earnings side deteriorates under the rally. Magnitude: >6,100 close = flush-and-reverse CONFIRMED (the pre-named arbiter); a deal collapse re-arms the oil channel and reasoned −3 to −6% gives back the de-escalation leg. Confidence: HIGH on the price action, MODERATE on durability — everything resolves in the 16–19 Jun FOMC→RDG→MSCI window. Distributional: winners — high-beta banks and rate-sensitives (discount-rate channel), importers/consumer complex at the margin (fuel-cost relief if Brent holds <$90); losers — oil-linked exporters (MEDC-class translation), short-vol hedges. Kill signals: close >6,100 pre-FOMC = confirmation (bull); fade back <5,746 or deal collapse = the bid was rented, not owned (bear). NO structural weight change — Mon 15-Jun audit + the window decide.
v2.6.8 — 12 Jun 2026 (Fri) material (intraday +1.58% > 1.5% threshold; catalyst flow-through): pause, then push toward 6,000 — while the consumer pincer lands. IHSG faded −0.28% to 5,886.03 on 11-Jun (Databoks — secondary; first red close of the recovery, a pause not a failure — well above the 5,746 kill line), then rebounded +1.58% intraday to ~5,979 on 12-Jun with a 5,994.98 high (Yahoo ^JKSE machine series) — cumulative +11.9% off the 8-Jun 5,342.14 low, the >6,100 flush-and-reverse confirmation now ~2.0% away. Three catalyst flow-throughs from the macro tape (full treatment on idrtracker): (1) April retail sales −3.7% YoY (BI survey — primary; steepest since May-2023, F&B −3.8%) — a direct earnings headwind for the consumer complex (ICBP/INDF/MYOR/AMRT/MAPI class) just as (2) Pertamax +32.1% (Rp 16,250/L eff. 10-Jun — Pertamina primary) squeezes middle-class purchasing power further; the named offset is the government stimulus package in preparation (Jakarta Globe — secondary; size/composition unannounced = unpriceable until gazetted). (3) US May PPI +1.1% MoM / 6.5% YoY (BLS — primary; hottest since Nov-2022) hardens Fed-hike pricing into the 16–17 Jun FOMC — the external discount-rate channel re-arms exactly into the MSCI 19-Jun window. Brent's retreat to ~$92–94 is the partial relief valve. Mechanism: the recovery's composition shifts — banks float on the engineered bid (BI 5.50% + Himbara buyback expectation) while consumer earnings revisions turn negative; a narrowing rally into a binary external week is fragile by construction. Magnitude: consumer staples/discretionary ~12–15% of IHSG; a −3.7% retail print sustained two more months is a reasoned −3 to −6% sector earnings revision. Confidence: HIGH on the prints, MODERATE on the narrowing-rally read (one session of composition evidence). Kills: bull — a >6,100 close before the FOMC = flush-and-reverse CONFIRMED, IG-to-IG band (−8 to −12%) favored; bear — a fade <5,746 OR a hawkish-dots FOMC + MSCI Frontier cut combo = second leg failed into a forced-outflow shock. SPOT_FALLBACK 5,902.38→5,886.03 (last confirmed close). No structural weight shift; Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18, P-weighted 12m ~6,650 unchanged — Mon 15-Jun weekly audit + the FOMC/MSCI resolutions are the re-weight gate.
v2.6.7 — 11 Jun 2026 (Thu) material: second green day — 10-Jun close 5,902.38 (+2.71%), the relief leg compounds but the 6,100 arbiter is unresolved. IHSG closed +155.73 pts at 5,902.38 (RRI; metrotvnews — secondary; Yahoo ^JKSE machine series confirms), intraday high 5,942.94, on broad breadth — 571 advancers vs 148 decliners — with LQ45 +3.54%; cumulative recovery off the 8-Jun 5,342.14 low is now +10.5% in two sessions, and the close (not just intraday) holds above the 5,840 capitulation line for the first time since 4-Jun. Mechanism: the engineered bid (BI 5.50% + Himbara buyback expectation) is being joined by a genuinely organic element — breadth this wide (79% advancers) is not a buyback-concentrated print, and the rupiah firmed in tandem (17,944, +0.63%), easing the FX/discount-rate channel. Counter-evidence: the overnight US–Iran re-escalation (Brent >$100) + US May CPI 4.2% YoY (~70% Dec-Fed-hike pricing) re-arm the external channel that fed the original de-rate, and the 19-Jun MSCI review remains a binary overhang. Magnitude: the >6,100 confirmation is 3.3% away — one more +2.7%-class session reaches it; failure into the MSCI review re-opens the bear leg. Confidence: MODERATE-HIGH on the breadth read, MODERATE on durability. Kills: >6,100 close within 1–2 sessions = flush-and-reverse CONFIRMED, IG-to-IG bear band (−8 to −12%) favored over IG-to-HY; a fade back <5,746 (9-Jun close) = the second leg failing. SPOT_FALLBACK 5,838→5,902. No structural weight shift; Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18, P-weighted 12m ~6,650 unchanged.
v2.6.6 — 10 Jun 2026 (Wed) CATALYST (orchestrator-grade, monetary + capital-architecture): the 8-Jun reopen flush-and-reversed. BLUF — The arbiter the last two runs flagged has resolved toward flush-and-reverse: after the 8-Jun reopen extended the capitulation to 5,342.14 (−4.52%), IHSG snapped +7.57% to 5,746 on 9-Jun and opened ~5,838 on 10-Jun, reclaiming the 5,840 line intraday. Twin drivers: BI's surprise off-cycle +25bp to 5.50% (9-Jun) and a Danantara-coordinated Himbara bank-buyback plan (DPR + Danantara + Himbara + BPJS + state insurers). Banks led — BMRI +10.2%, BBNI +8.6%, BBRI +7.7%, BBCA +6.2% (Kompas; ANTARA; investortrust — secondary; bi.go.id; Bloomberg — primary on the hike). Confidence: HIGH on the rebound facts, MODERATE on durability — >6,100 (full flush-and-reverse) is NOT yet reclaimed.
Mechanism & magnitude (gate 2,4): Two reinforcing channels reverse the discount-rate re-rate that drove the −34% YTD drawdown. (i) The off-cycle hike supports IDR and signals policy resolve (FX/rate channel — banks ~30% of IHSG also see NIM support, partly offset by higher funding cost). (ii) The buyback is a direct demand floor under the index's heaviest weights. Event window: +7.57% (9-Jun) is one of the largest single-session IHSG gains on record, but it recovers only ~75% of the 5-8 Jun capitulation (6,127 on 29-May → 5,342 low → ~5,838) — a bounce within a drawdown, not a new uptrend. Comparable: the 20-May 50bp surprise hike produced a 1-2 session relief bounce that then faded.
Counter-evidence / falsification (gate 3): Both drivers are stabilization tools, not organic demand — an off-cycle hike between meetings signals the authorities judged the rout severe, and a state-coordinated buyback distorts price discovery using BUMN/Danantara/BPJS balance sheets. The hike's higher lending facility (6.25%) is a medium-term growth/multiple drag. Kills: (i) failure to reclaim >6,100 within 2–3 sessions = relief bounce, not reversal; (ii) the buyback announced-but-not-executed (modal Indonesian failure) = the bid hollow; (iii) MSCI 19-Jun Frontier-downgrade = a mechanical passive-outflow shock that overwhelms the engineered bid.
Distributional (gate 6): First-order winner — KBMI-4 banks (buyback floor + NIM) and index-weight large caps (TLKM/ASII). Second-order winner — foreign holders handed an exit bid into strength, and active locals who bought the 5,342 flush. Second-order loser (unintended-cost bearer) — the BUMN/Danantara/BPJS balance sheets funding the buyback (a quasi-fiscal cost), domestic borrowers at 6.25% lending facility, and foreign-float-heavy names still exposed to the 19-Jun MSCI review. Decision-useful close (gate 7): a >6,100 close within 2–3 sessions on improving breadth recasts the 5-8 Jun break as a completed flush-and-reverse and argues the IG-to-IG bear (−8 to −12%) over the deeper IG-to-HY tail; a fade back below 5,600 = the engineered bounce failing. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 and weights Bull 28–35/Base 50–55/Bear 12–18 unchanged; P-weighted 12m ~6,650; the bear-tail re-weight stays HELD for the weekly audit — one buyback-and-hike session does not ratify a re-weight either direction. NO structural weight shift this run.
v2.6.5 — 8 Jun 2026 (Mon) arbiter session, run pre-09:00 reopen: no fresh IHSG print yet; carries 5-Jun close 5,594.77 below the 5,840 capitulation line. Today's reopen resolves the v2.6.3 kill check.
Cross-asset set-up into the reopen (partial-bull tilt). Two overnight developments lean relief: (i) offshore IDR firmed to ~18,015 (vs 5-Jun ECB 18,070), the <17,850 kill un-fired but the slide halting at the margin; (ii) oil de-escalation crystallizing — US–Iran 60-day ceasefire MoU, Brent ~$90–100 (−20% from the 2026 peak). Mechanism: both ease the equity discount rate that drove the −4.20% capitulation (the FX/oil terms-of-trade channel partly unwinding), so the reopen has a relief set-up. Magnitude/confidence: MODERATE — a relief bounce is consistent with BOTH a flush-and-reverse AND a dead-cat bounce after a −34% YTD drawdown; breadth + 2–3 session follow-through is the arbiter, not the first print. Banks ~30% of IHSG remain the swing factor.
Today's two arbiters + a forward risk. (a) IHSG reopen: a >6,100 reclaim within 2–3 sessions = flush-and-reverse (the 5,840 break was capitulation-flush, not regime-break); a hold/extension below 5,840 = capitulation leg ratified, putting the deeper IG-to-HY tail (−20 to −30%) in question vs the milder IG-to-IG band (−8 to −12%). (b) end-May BI reserves print (overdue, expected today) is the cross-asset read: clean (≤USD 3bn) supports the relief case, costly (>USD 5bn) corroborates the bear leg. (c) Forward risk — MSCI 19-Jun review: speculation MSCI could cut Indonesia toward Frontier status (secondary; TIMES.id, Trading Economics) threatens mechanical passive outflows on top of the YTD foreign net sell now ~Rp 67T. Distributional: relief winner = index-weight banks BBCA/BBRI/BMRI + TLKM/ASII; structural loser = foreign-float-heavy names if the MSCI review cuts. Decision-useful: a >6,100 reclaim + clean reserves print = the bear-tail re-weight stays parked; a hold below 5,840 + costly print = the weekly audit weighs ratifying the formal bear-tail re-weight. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 and weights Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged; P-weighted 12m ~6,650 held — NO structural weight shift this run pending the reopen + reserves print.
v2.6.4 — 7 Jun 2026 (Sun) weekend hold: IDX closed, last print 5-Jun close 5,594.77 below the 5,840 capitulation line. The Mon 8-Jun reopen is the arbiter — a >6,100 reclaim within 2–3 sessions recasts the break as flush-and-reverse; a hold/extension below ratifies the capitulation leg. FinMin Purbaya's "weakness doesn't reflect fundamentals" is jawboning, not a catalyst. No structural weight shift this run.
Pass 1 — Fact base (machine/secondary source): IHSG 5-Jun close 5,594.77, −4.20% vs 4-Jun 5,839.79 (Yahoo Finance ^JKSE clean 5-day series: 6,195.43 / 5,941.07 / 5,839.79 / 5,594.77 for 2–5 Jun). Weakest level since May 2021; ~−34% YTD, the worst of 90+ global equity indices (Trading Economics, Databoks). Reconciliation: the v2.6.2 "4-Jun close 5,965.00" came from a single Trading Economics print that the clean Yahoo series now contradicts — the true 4-Jun close was 5,839.79, i.e. the index sat exactly on the 5,840 line on 4-Jun and broke decisively below it on 5-Jun. [Saturday run — 5-Jun is the freshest tape; IDX closed today.]
Pass 2 — Mechanism & magnitude: A −4.20% session that breaks a pre-named technical/thesis line is a capitulation signature, not noise. Driver stack (all reinforcing, none new-discrete): (i) the rupiah's >18,000 break + a firmer dollar (DXY ~99.4, Fed-hike-before-year-end repricing) raise the equity discount rate via the FX/rate channel; (ii) the carried Moody's/Danantara governance re-rate; (iii) MSCI 2026 reclassification jitters (~18-Jun review) threatening mechanical passive outflows; (iv) fears of heavier BUMN state intervention in commodity exports. Banks (~30% of IHSG) led lower. Magnitude: the v2.6.2 kill signal explicitly defined a break below 5,840 as confirming the capitulation leg toward the IG-to-IG bear (−8 to −12% net 12m); that leg is now confirmed, lifting bear-tail probability mass within scenario. Confidence: HIGH on the close and the line-break fact, MODERATE on whether this extends to the deeper IG-to-HY tail (−20 to −30%) vs stabilizing in the milder IG-to-IG band.
Pass 3 — Counter-evidence / falsification: (i) a sharp >6,100 reclaim within 2–3 sessions would, after the fact, recast 5-Jun as a flush-and-reverse rather than a regime break — but a −4.20% break of a named line on a Friday into a weekend is hard to unwind; (ii) the move is partly exogenous (oil/IDR + US-dollar), so a Hormuz de-escalation + softer dollar could pull equities back up alongside the rupiah; (iii) the end-May BI reserves print (~7–8 Jun) is the cross-asset arbiter — a costly-defence print (>USD 5bn drain) would corroborate the bear leg, a clean one would argue overshoot. Distributional: first-order loser = bank-heavy index longs + foreign passive holders; relative-value pocket = coal/CPO exporters (Newcastle ~$147, weaker-IDR translation) inside a down tape; unintended-cost bearer = domestic retail/pension equity books marked at multi-year lows. Decision-useful: the capitulation leg is confirmed, so the P-weighted 12m re-anchors lower within scenario and bear-tail mass rises; per discipline a formal Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 5y re-weight is held for the weekly audit to ratify on 2-session + reserves confirmation. Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged this run; NO structural weight shift pending the weekly audit.
v2.6.1 — 4 Jun 2026 (Thu) MATERIAL REVERSAL: IHSG 3-Jun close 5,941.07 −4.11%, a fresh 52-week low, reversed the prior bull-confirm read. Trigger was Moody's first-time Baa2/negative on PT Danantara Investment Management (3-Jun), sovereign-aligned, plus May CPI 3.08% and the April trade surplus collapsing to US$0.09bn (6-yr low). The v2.6.0 3-Jun follow-through kill check fired (close well below the 6,100 floor) — though via a fresh rating/macro catalyst rather than the anticipated CPO/coal friction. Watching a >6,100 reclaim vs a 5,840 break; no structural 5y weight shift this run pending confirmation.
Fact base: First equity session after Pancasila Day. At run-time (~08:1x WIB) the IDX has not opened (09:00 WIB), so there is no 2-Jun IHSG print. Reference: last close Fri 29-May
6,127.38 (fifth consecutive session above the 6,100 floor). YTD foreign net sell ~Rp 57.8T post-MSCI rebalance. Cross-asset: rupiah touched a fresh record low ~17,900 offshore in thin holiday trade (Frankfurter ECB 1-Jun 17,835, +0.11%) — full read on
idrtracker.com; Newcastle coal broke its $131–135 band to ~$140/t over the holiday — see
idktracker.com.
Mechanism & magnitude (what the open will test): Three sub-reads collide at the open. (i)
Coal-name read: PTBA/ADRO/ITMG/BUMI/INDY face Phase-1 documentation friction but a coal-price breakout to ~$140 is revenue-positive — net direction ambiguous, watch which dominates. (ii)
CPO-name read: AALI/LSIP/SIMP/DSNG under the same docs regime with flat CPO (~RM 4,535) — friction-dominated if they lag. (iii)
Carve-out read: ANTM/INCO/MDKA/NCKL trade on metal not policy.
Bands: bull open >6,150 (soft-phasing + coal tailwind), base 6,080–6,150, bear <6,080 with CPO/coal leading the decline (friction priced).
Confidence: LOW (no tape; two days of accumulated global macro conflate with the go-live).
Falsification / kill signals (live today): IHSG
<6,080 with CPO/coal leading → friction priced, revisit toward bear tail. AALI/LSIP/PTBA/ADRO
hold or rally → soft-phasing confirmed. Carve-out names
outperforming CPO/coal peers → market pricing the carve-out as designed. First
DSI-only LOI → bear reactivates regardless of tape.
Distributional: winner = PTBA (state coal, channel-perceived beneficiary, plus coal-price tailwind) + index-heavyweight banks if rupiah holds; loser = listed private CPO/coal parents (BUMI, INDY, SIMP) bearing documentation friction + onshore-retention working-capital cost. 12w listed weights Base 55 / Bull 15 / Bear 30 unchanged; structural 5y 9,500–11,000; P-weighted 12m ~6,650.
Pass 1 — Fact base (primary source): Phase 1 of the single-gate export regime begins
1 Jun 2026: documentation-only routing of CPO, coal and ferro-alloy exports through PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI), as a transition window 1 Jun → 31 Aug ahead of Phase 2 (voluntary opt-in Sept–Dec) and Phase 3 (mandatory exclusive 1 Jan 2027). Nickel and gold are explicitly carved out of the first batch. Listed names in scope:
AALI, LSIP, SIMP, DSNG (CPO);
PTBA, ADRO, ITMG, BUMI, INDY, HRUM (coal); ferro-alloy producers. Carve-out names unaffected:
ANTM, INCO, MDKA, NCKL (nickel + gold). Sources:
VOI — Permendag one-door CPO/coal,
Jakarta Globe — palm-oil/coal sectors fear fallout.
Pass 2 — Mechanism and magnitude (listed-name read): Phase 1 is documentation-only — it imposes reporting friction and signals intent, but no margin-capture, no mandatory DSI off-take, no fee on the export at this stage. The transmission to listed CPO/coal equity is therefore primarily an
information/uncertainty channel (overhang on FDI and capex intentions toward the Jan-2027 mandatory destination), not a near-term cash-flow hit.
Magnitude (held from prior 5-pass): 12-week listed-private-producer scenarios Base −10 to −20% / Bull +5 to +15% / Bear −20 to −35%, weights 55/15/30 —
unchanged. A clean, low-friction Phase 1 go-live (the soft staged Permendag) argues for the bull/base boundary, not the bear tail.
Confidence: MODERATE on direction,
LOW on the 2-Jun first-print magnitude (holiday gap + two days of accumulated global macro).
Pass 3 — Counter-evidence / falsification: (i) the staged/soft design means Phase 1 may register as a non-event on the 2-Jun tape — reporting plumbing rarely moves equity by itself; (ii) the carve-out structure (nickel + gold OUT) means index-level impact is diluted — affected CPO+coal names are a minority of IHSG weight vs banks (~30%); (iii) any 2-Jun move conflates Phase 1 with the post-MSCI flow normalization and global macro — attribution will be noisy.
Pass 4 — Distributional read: First-order winner — PTBA + ANTM via the BUMN channel-premium narrative (state producers positioned inside the gate). Second-order winner (unstated rent capturer) — DSI itself as the eventual mandatory intermediary capturing margin from 2027. Second-order loser (unintended-cost bearer) — small/mid private CPO/coal exporters and their listed parents (BUMI, INDY, SIMP) carrying compliance cost and FDI-overhang discount with no offsetting access.
Pass 5 — Decision-useful close (kill signals for 2-Jun reopen): (i) IHSG
<6,080 on 2-Jun with CPO/coal leading the decline → Phase 1 friction priced, revisit toward bear tail; (ii) AALI/LSIP/PTBA/ADRO hold or rally on the reopen → soft-phasing read confirmed, no change; (iii)
first DSI-only export LOI or mandatory-routing surprise → bear thesis reactivates regardless of tape; (iv) carve-out names (ANTM/INCO/MDKA) outperform CPO/coal peers → market pricing the carve-out as designed, validates the differentiated read; (v) banks (~30% of index) remain the swing factor — Phase 1 is a sector story, not an index story.
Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged; post-audit weights Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged; P-weighted 12m ~6,650 held. NO weight shift this run.
v2.5.7 — 30 May 2026 (Sat, post-mortem of Fri 29-May MSCI implementation): IHSG closed 6,127.38 (−0.05% vs Tue 6,130.19) — intraday rally to 6,217.88 fully unwound at close; foreign net sell Rp 8.52T (regular Rp 8.36T) materialized as forecast; fifth session above 6,100 floor; pre-positioning hypothesis on equities REJECTED, validated on FX.
Pass 1 — Fri 29-May verdict (the empirical fact): IHSG closed at
6,127.38 (−2.81 pts, −0.05% on the day) — essentially unchanged vs Tue 26-May close 6,130.19. Intraday range: open 6,112.77 (below Tue close), Session 1 rally to 6,217.88 (+1.43%), Session 2 sell-off as the MSCI mechanical flow concentrated near the 16:00 WIB settlement window. Foreign net sell
Rp 8.52T all-market (regular market Rp 8.36T) — within range of the CGS US$1.8–2.0bn pre-event estimate. Top three foreign net sells:
BBCA Rp 2T (passive weight-down on free-float-adj),
TPIA Rp 2T (MSCI Standard deletion),
AMMN Rp 1.6T (deletion). Cross-asset: IDR strengthened to 17,816 (Frankfurter ECB 29-May, −0.20%); 5th consecutive session above 6,100 floor.
Pass 2 — What the Fri tape actually says (mechanism revisited): The pre-positioning hypothesis from v2.5.6 had two components — (a) FX-channel pre-positioning, (b) equity-channel pre-positioning. Friday split them:
①
FX pre-positioning hypothesis: CONFIRMED. IDR strengthened on the highest mechanical USD-demand day of the rebalance window — only consistent with DHE NR retention + BI smoothing + pre-positioned local FX bid absorbing the flow without a price concession. Cross-asset bull validation.
②
Equity pre-positioning hypothesis: PARTIALLY REJECTED. If pre-positioning had been complete, the open gap-up would have held into the close as deletion-name forced sells were already absorbed. Instead the Session 1 rally (+1.43% to 6,217.88) fully unwound — meaning the index-weight winners' opening rally was retail/momentum overshoot, not deep institutional positioning, and the close-of-day mechanical sells in BBCA/TPIA/AMMN remained unhedged in the active book.
③
Floor discipline: HELD. Despite the close-of-day sell-off, IHSG closed essentially flat vs Tue — the bear scenario (close < 6,100, open gap fully rejected with break) did
not materialize. The 6,100 floor extends to fifth consecutive session.
Net Pass 2 read: pre-positioning was a real but partial absorption mechanism on the equity side; FX side was more fully positioned. The MSCI rebalance proved exactly what it was pre-event characterized as — a known mechanical flow risk that the market discounted but did not over-discount.
Pass 3 — Distributional (Fri post-mortem):
| Cohort | Names | Fri close verdict |
|---|
| Index-weight beneficiaries — partial validation | BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, TLKM, ASII | BBCA bore Rp 2T net sell despite mechanical weight-up — the free-float-adjustment factor (FFAF) methodology change materially exceeded what pure weight-up gave back. BBRI/BMRI/TLKM/ASII fared better. |
| Direct sellers — flow executed | AMMN (−Rp 1.6T), TPIA (−Rp 2T), BREN, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT | Mechanical sell crystallized at 16:00 close; overhang now structurally cleared. Mon 1-Jun open will test active deletion-buy hypothesis. |
| Cross-asset bull confirmer | IDR (Frankfurter 17,816 −0.20%) | IDR strengthened on the highest USD-demand day — the cleanest possible cross-asset validation that the BI defense architecture absorbed the flow. |
| Unstated rent capturer | KBMI-4 BUMN banks | DHE NR fee accumulation on the day's flow conversion accrues to BMRI/BBRI/BBNI/BBTN; second-order earnings benefit not in consensus. |
Pass 4 — Quantified (vs Friday's pre-event bands): v2.5.6 base case for Fri close was 6,150–6,200; bear 6,050–6,120; bull 6,200–6,250. Actual close 6,127.38 sits
at the bear-base boundary — bear scenario partially realized (intraday rally given back) but not extended (no break below 6,100). Foreign net sell Rp 8.52T sits at the higher end of the pre-event Rp 31–35T 5-day cumulative expectation, suggesting the bulk of mechanical flow concentrated on the implementation day rather than smearing across the window. Index-level P-weighted 12m re-anchors to
~6,650 (vs ~6,680 at 6,187 hypothetical hold; ~6,560 at 6,130 pre-rebalance). Structural 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged.
Pass 5 — Decision-useful close (confidence: HIGH on the Fri verdict, MODERATE on the Mon 1-Jun read-through): The MSCI rebalance was the lowest-cost outcome the bear scenario could have produced — index closed flat, floor held, FX strengthened, foreign sell concentrated in the deletion names rather than broad-market.
No probability-weight shift — Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged.
Pivot to PT DSI Phase 1 launch Mon 1-Jun — this is the next thesis vector. Kill signals for the week of 1-Jun: (i) Mon 1-Jun IHSG opens < 6,080 → MSCI absorption was incomplete, Tue 2-Jun confirms; (ii) any of AMMN/BREN/TPIA/DSSA/CUAN/AMRT rallies >5% Mon 1-Jun → deletion-buy signal live; (iii) Mon 1-Jun first DSI-only LOI signed by major buyer → bear thesis on private CPO/coal reactivates regardless of soft Permendag phasing; (iv) IndoGB 10y prints < 6.75% next 3 sessions → FX bull spills into bond rally, structural Bull weight nudges up; (v) early-June BI reserves print quantifies whether the IDR strengthening was natural-absorption (≤$3bn drain — bull) or BI-intervention (>$5bn — base-bear).
Honest objectivity note: The bear stack remains structurally intact — PT DSI Phase 1 launches T-2, three-agency negative-outlook stack unchanged, structural foreign outflow YTD now ~Rp 57.8T after Fri's Rp 8.52T. The IHSG flat close + FX strengthening is a tactical bull confirmation, NOT a structural thesis change. The next test is whether Mon 1-Jun produces operational friction at DSI Phase 1, or whether the staged Permendag glide path delivers a 12-week documentation-only window that meaningfully softens the channel-cost thesis.
v2.5.6 — 29 May 2026 (Fri, IDX reopens post-Idul Adha + MSCI rebalance implementation day): IHSG opens 6,187.48 (+0.93% gap-up vs Tue close 6,130.19) — opening tape signals pre-positioning, not panic. Floor above 6,100 extends to fourth session.
Pass 1 — Today's tape (the empirical fact): IDX reopens after Idul Adha (Wed 27-May) + cuti bersama (Thu 28-May). Opening print
6,187.48 — a
+57.29 pt gap-up vs Tue 26-May close 6,130.19 (+0.93%). First 30min print 6,179.69 (Yahoo Finance 15min bars 02:00–02:30 UTC = 9:00–9:30 WIB), suggesting the gap is holding through the early tape.
Today is the actual MSCI flow event: six Standard removals (AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT) + 13 small caps settle at the 16:00 WIB close, with CGS International estimating US$1.8–2.0bn (~Rp 31.5–34.7T) in passive outflow concentrated near the close.
Pass 2 — What the gap-up tells us (mechanism): A positive open on the day of a telegraphed-but-meaningful passive-outflow event is empirically inconsistent with the bear-flow scenario. Two readings:
①
Pre-positioning hypothesis (high confidence): active managers and proprietary desks pre-positioned shorts in the deletion names + longs in BBCA/BBRI/BMRI/TLKM/ASII (the index-weight beneficiaries) over the 13–28 May window. The aggregate flow into the top-5 weights is now showing as the +0.93% open. This matches the 8.35% IHSG drawdown 18–22 May that the dashboard documented — that drawdown was the bear flow being executed by active risk reduction ahead of the mechanical event.
②
Holiday-pent-up flow hypothesis (moderate confidence): two trading days of closure (27–28 May) caused inventory pressure that vented at the reopen — opportunistic local buying from retail / domestic institutions catching up. Less explanatory because index-weight winners specifically rallied, not broad-market.
The data favors hypothesis ① — but hypothesis ② cannot be ruled out until close-of-day flow data prints (Friday evening Bareksa / IDX foreign-flow tape).
Pass 3 — Distributional (who wins, who loses today):
| Cohort | Names | Today's open read |
|---|
| Index-weight winners (validated by gap-up) | BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, TLKM, ASII (top-5 weights) | Mechanical weight re-rate kicks in; index gap-up consistent with concentrated buying |
| Direct sellers (still face close-pressure) | AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT | Mechanical sell at 16:00 WIB close still ahead — open price may be misleading on these names |
| Active-fund deletion-buy candidates | AMMN/BREN cluster (post-overhang) | Historical pattern: 5–10 sessions post-rebalance, removed names rally if free-float / governance issues are resolvable |
| Cross-asset confirmation | IDR / DXY pair | IDR Frankfurter 28-May 17,851 (+0.08%) flat tape — consistent with absorbed flow narrative |
Pass 4 — Quantified (intraday band): Base case for today's close: IHSG 6,150–6,200 (flat-to-positive +0.3 to +1.1% net on the day; mechanical close-flow weakens the +0.93% open but doesn't reverse it). Bear case: 6,050–6,120 (close-of-day mechanical sell + IDR pressure compound; closes below opening gap but above 6,000). Bull case: 6,200–6,250 (deletion-buy already active, MSCI flow absorbed cleanly + BBCA/BBRI lead).
P-weighted close band 6,150–6,200; P-weighted 12m target reset to ~6,680 if 6,187 holds, vs ~6,560 anchor at 6,130.
Pass 5 — Decision-useful close (confidence: MODERATE-HIGH on direction, MODERATE on magnitude): The +0.93% gap-up is bull confirmation of the flow-anticipation mechanism — it says the IDX has digested the MSCI rebalance as a known event.
No probability-weight shift today — Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged; 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged. Need 2–3 sessions of follow-through above 6,150 before any weight tilt toward bull. Kill signals: (i) IHSG closes Fri < 6,100 → opening gap rejected, MSCI flow not absorbed at close, fourth-session-above discipline breaks; (ii) IHSG closes 6,100–6,150 → mixed (open gap partially gives back, neutral); (iii) IHSG closes > 6,150 → bull confirmed, momentum back; (iv) any of the six removed names rallies >5% in Mon 1-Jun session → deletion-buy signal live, active opportunity; (v) IDR breaks 18,000 on settlement → bull confirmation on IHSG may be incomplete; cross-asset bear strengthens.
Honest objectivity note: The bear stack remains intact in the structural background — PT DSI phase-1 reporting starts in 3 days (1 Jun), three-agency sovereign negative-outlook stack unmoved, structural foreign outflow YTD >Rp 49T. What today's tape changed is the near-term technical posture, not the structural thesis. The 12-week PT DSI listed-name read (private CPO −10 to −20% base, BUMN beneficiary PTBA +5 to +10%) remains the dominant tactical position; the MSCI rebalance proves to be the flow risk that markets pre-discounted, not a new vector.
v2.5.5 — 28 May 2026 (Thu, cuti bersama Idul Adha — IDX closed Wed 27 + Thu 28; reopens Fri 29-May): MSCI Indonesia May 2026 rebalance implements tomorrow at the close.
Pass 1 — Frame: Following the 13-May MSCI announcement, six names are removed from the MSCI Global Standard Index effective close of trade
Friday 29 May 2026:
AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT, alongside 13 small-cap deletions. Indonesia's Global Standard representation drops from 17 to 11 constituents. Primary driver cited by MSCI: insufficient free-float-adjusted market capitalisation; BREN and DSSA specifically flagged for shareholding-concentration concerns. Primary sources:
MSCI 13-May announcement (HeyGoTrade summary),
Kontan list of removals.
Pass 4 — Quantified flow impact: CGS International estimates
US$1.8–2.0bn in mechanical passive outflow at the rebalance close — roughly
Rp 31.5–34.7T at USD/IDR 17,837. This sits on top of the YTD net foreign-sell of
~Rp 49.3T through last week (single-week 18–22 May was −Rp 5.3T; the Bareksa series puts cumulative 2026 foreign outflow at Rp 41.6T). Rebalance-day price dispersion is typically muted on the day because passive managers telegraph trades and active liquidity provides at the close, but the AMMN/BREN/TPIA/DSSA cluster has been a high-beta-of-IHSG group: the six removals were collectively a meaningful index-weight driver of the 18–22 May 8.35% IHSG drawdown. Expected residual outcomes: (i) the six names absorb the bulk of mechanical-flow pressure on 29-May close; (ii) IHSG index-level move on the day typically <±1% historically; (iii) potential cross-asset spillover to USD/IDR if the outflow is not absorbed locally (passive flow converts IDR → USD).
Pass 3 — Distributional (winners / losers, beyond the deletion list):
| Cohort | Names | Read |
|---|
| Direct sellers | AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, CUAN, AMRT | Mechanical sell at close 29-May; near-term overhang clears post-rebalance unless free-float remains low |
| Index-weight winners | BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, TLKM, ASII (top-5 weights) | Relative weight increases by construction; modest passive inflow benefit at re-weight |
| FX-channel risk | IDR / DXY pair | If foreign holders convert, mild IDR pressure on 29-May settlement window — adds to BI defence load |
| Active-fund opportunity | Quality mid-caps absent from MSCI Standard | Liquidity discount may compress as forced-seller overhang clears |
Pass 5 — Decision-useful close (confidence: MODERATE): The mechanical-flow event is well-telegraphed (announced 13-May; today is 28-May), so the surprise component is largely priced. The cleaner read is what happens to the SIX removed names
after the rebalance overhang clears (typically the next 5–10 sessions) — that determines whether the "MSCI deletion = forced underperformance" tape is the buy signal that 2020/2022 analogs suggest, or whether the underlying free-float / governance issues that triggered deletion persist. Kill signals: (i) IDR breaks 18,000 on 29-May settlement → flow not absorbed, structural-bear case strengthens; (ii) IHSG closes < 6,000 on Fri 29 close → 2-session sub-6,000 watch begins (Mon 1-Jun would be the trigger session); (iii) any of the six removed names rallies >5% in the first session post-rebalance → forced-seller overhang has cleared, deletion-buy signal active.
Today's tape: IDX market closed Wed 27-May (Idul Adha national holiday) and Thu 28-May (cuti bersama). Last close: Tue 26-May
6,130.19 (−1.23% vs Mon 6,206.35; day range 6,124.79–6,286.87) — third consecutive close above 6,100 but momentum stalled. 2-session sub-6,000 close discipline still NOT triggered.
No probability-weight shift — Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged; 5y band 9,500–11,000 unchanged. The rebalance is incremental flow risk, not a thesis vector.
v2.5.4 — 26 May 2026 (Tue, rerun 10:30 WIB via v2 methodology): PT DSI formally becomes BUMN-Persero — single-gate vehicle is now legally operative. Cross-tracker callout produced via the v2 5-pass methodology (TRACKER_THESIS_METHODOLOGY.md §2) + 7 quality gates (§3). Full audit trail on idktracker.com; equity-transmission focus here.
Pass 1 — Frame: PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (PT DSI) was officially converted to BUMN (Persero) status on
25 May 2026, signed by CEO
Rosan Roeslani, CIO
Pandu Sjahrir, COO
Dony Oskaria. PT DSI is the legal single-gate exporter for
coal, palm kernel oil / CPO, and ferro-alloys per the 20-May Prabowo announcement. Phased: June–August reporting; full-chain routing from
1 September 2026. Primary source:
CNBC Indonesia 25-May 2026; Setneg JDIH Perpres pending verification.
Pass 3 — Listed-name distributional impact (the IDX read):
| Cohort | Names | Mechanism | Base 12w | Bear 12w |
|---|
| BUMN coal beneficiary | PTBA | Direct DSI channel premium; preserved buyer relationships via state imprimatur | +5 to +10% | +10 to +15% |
| BUMN ferro / nickel-sleeve | ANTM, INCO, TINS | Ferro-alloy in 1st batch positive for ANTM; nickel + gold explicitly OUT (no overhang INCO/MBMA/NCKL/MDKA) | flat to +5% (ANTM); flat (others) | flat to +10% (ANTM) |
| Listed private coal | BUMI, ADRO, ITMG, HRUM, BYAN, INDY, GEMS | Lose direct buyer relationships; DSI intermediation extracts pricing-power spread; possible export-licence delays | −10 to −15% | −15 to −25% |
| Listed private CPO upstream | AALI, LSIP, SIMP, DSNG, SSMS, TAPG, SGRO, BWPT | Margin-control overhang + reporting friction June–Aug; full-pipeline risk Sept; downstream PALM / SMAR less exposed | −10 to −20% | −20 to −35% |
| Banks (BUMN-side) | BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, BBTN, BRIS | Export-FX flow concentration via state banks (Danantara orbit); potential fee uplift but minor on book; sovereign overhang still dominates | flat to +2% | −3 to −8% |
| Banks (private) | BBCA, NISP, MEGA | Loses some export-FX flow to BUMN peers; net minor; BBCA structurally insulated by domestic-deposit franchise | flat to −2% | −2 to −5% |
Pass 4 — Index-level scenario (12w window, base/bull/bear sum 100%):
| Scenario | Prob | IHSG impact (12w) | P-weighted target | Composition |
|---|
| Base | 55% | −2 to −4% (drag offset by BUMN-channel beneficiaries) | ~6,420 | CPO 5% IHSG weight × −15% mid = −0.75pp; Coal 3% × −12% = −0.36pp; PTBA/ANTM partial offset |
| Bull | 15% | +1 to +3% (relief on accommodative rollout) | ~6,520 | Private commodity names re-rate; PTBA flat (premium evaporates on parity) |
| Bear | 30% | −8 to −15% (aggressive + WTO challenge) | ~5,300–5,700 | CPO −1.5pp, coal −0.6pp, banks −1.5pp, broad-market −3 to −4pp on FDI shock |
Index-level structural weights (Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18) and 5-year band 9,500–11,000 unchanged by this catalyst — this is a 12-week tactical re-read, not a structural thesis revision.
Pass 5 — Kill signals (confidence: MODERATE; equity transmission lags policy by ~2–4 weeks):
① KPPU competition-exemption Perpres + retention statements from 3+ private exporters → bull confirmed; private-name relief rally.
② First major buyer (Tata Power / Adani Wilmar / Wilmar International) signs DSI-only LOI → bear confirmed; private-name derate accelerates.
③ EU / India WTO consultation request → bear severe; coal + CPO index-weight dragdown 4–8 weeks.
④ Permendag CPO + Permen-ESDM coal implementing texts published with softer mechanics than 20-May headline → base shifts toward bull.
Today's tape unchanged: IHSG 26-May intraday 6,197.41 (essentially flat vs Mon 25-May 6,206.35, −0.14%) — the catalyst has not yet flowed through; equity transmission typically lags policy announcement by ~2–4 weeks in 2014 / 2022 analogs. The 6,100 floor discipline remains: 2-session sub-6,000 close still the structural-weight-shift trigger.
Sources (primary first):
CNBC Indonesia 25-May 2026 (PT DSI BUMN-Persero signing) · Setneg JDIH (Perpres pending) · BPI Danantara corporate comms · Yahoo Finance ^JKSE 26-May. Methodology:
TRACKER_THESIS_METHODOLOGY.md (5-pass + 7 quality gates) · skills invoked: public-policy-analyst · political-economist · political-analyst · government-relations-strategist · event-study-analyst · sovereign-wealth-fund-analyst · commodity-equity-linkage · think-tank-researcher.
Quality gates passed: primary source ✓ · mechanism ✓ · counter-evidence ✓ · magnitude ✓ · confidence ✓ · distributional ✓ · decision-useful ✓.
v2.5.3 — 26 May 2026 (Tue): Monday close 6,206.35 (+0.72%) — second consecutive close above 6,100 confirms the floor. Monday's tape printed close
6,206.35 (+0.72% vs Friday's 6,162.04), with day range 6,124.58–6,239.59 — at no point did intraday trade revisit the 22-May 5,967 capitulation low. The bull confirmation that started Friday is now corroborated by a follow-through session, and the two-session sub-6,000 close discipline has clearly NOT been triggered. P-weighted 12m target re-anchored to 6,206 starting spot is mechanically
~6,560 (vs 6,510 at 6,162 spot, vs base 6,650). Cross-asset linkage stays clean: IDR holds 17,734 (Frankfurter 25-May print, +0.22% on the day — well below trigger), DXY softens to 98.96 — full FX read-through on
idrtracker.com.
Honest objectivity note: the broader bear stack is intact (Fitch banks negative outlook reaffirmed Mon, three-agency sovereign warning, structural foreign outflow YTD > Rp 51T, single-gate export friction still building for CPO/coal/ferro-alloy from 1 June). What changed today is the near-term technical posture, not the structural thesis.
No probability-weight shift — Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18 unchanged; structural 5-year band 9,500–11,000 unchanged. The next material reads are Tue–Wed sequential closes vs 6,100 (a third close above would meaningfully de-risk a re-test of 6,000), the Permendag + Permen-ESDM 14/2026 implementing texts now reportedly issued for the single-gate exports (banks-side spillover via export FX), and the early-June BI reserves print.
Sources: Yahoo Finance ^JKSE 25-May close 6,206.35 · Frankfurter 25-May USD/IDR 17,734 · Translindo/voi.id (Permendag) · Kementerian ESDM (Permen-ESDM 14/2026) · 25–26 May 2026
v2.5.2 — 25 May 2026 (Mon): Fitch reaffirms negative outlook on Indonesian banks. Fitch maintained its negative outlook on the domestic bank sector citing sovereign risk and NIM pressure from rising cost of funds vs. softer loan yields.
Why this matters here: banks are
~30% of IHSG weight (NOT the 51% MSCI Indonesia figure), and the KBMI-4 quartet (BBCA / BBRI / BMRI / BBNI) is >20% on its own — the heaviest single-sector concentration in the index. The negative-outlook re-affirmation is incremental to the three-agency stack already in the dashboard (Moody's Baa2/neg, Fitch BBB/neg, S&P warning) and is consistent with the post-BI-hike NIM mechanics already disclosed.
No weight shift today per the 2-session sub-6,000 close discipline — Friday's 6,162 close stands, Monday's session yet to print at run-time. Probability weights unchanged (Bull 28–35 / Base 50–55 / Bear 12–18). The catalyst to watch is sequential Monday and Tuesday closes vs. 6,100: a second close below would meaningfully raise near-term touch probability of 6,000. The Fitch action adds to the bear-sector overhang on banks specifically without restating index-level structural weights.
Sources: Fitch Ratings · ANTARA · idnfinancials (24–25 May 2026)
v2.5.1 — 24 May 2026 (Sun): The 6,000 floor held on close. Friday 22 May intraday low: 5,966.86 (briefly through 6,000 in panic). Friday close: 6,162.04 (+1.10%). Week-on-week IHSG: −6.6% from 6,599 (18 May open). The intraday capitulation + reversal is the strongest bull confirmation of the week and offsets some of the WoW bear print. Probability weights unchanged — the 2-session sub-6,000 close criterion was NOT met. P-weighted 12m target re-anchored to 6,162 starting spot is mechanically ~6,510 (vs prior 6,440 at 6,094 spot, vs base 6,650). Cross-asset IDR remains stable at 17,695 (Frankfurter 22-May print) — divergence persists. Monday's open is the next read; a second consecutive close above 6,100 would meaningfully de-risk near-term touch probability of 6,000. Cosmetic refresh + IHSG spot bump only; no structural changes.
v2.4 NEW — 20 May 2026: Prabowo single-gate BUMN export draft. At the DPR plenary on 20 May, President Prabowo announced a draft Government Regulation routing all exports of
CPO, coal, and ferro-alloy through a state-appointed BUMN as sole counterparty. Transition
June 2026; full implementation
September 2026. Cited motive: USD 908B in lost revenue from underinvoicing, transfer pricing, FX-evasion.
Market reaction was sharply selective — PTBA
+6.79% (perceived BUMN-channel beneficiary), ITMG +0.11%, ADRO down; all listed CPO names down (DSNG, TAPG, SMAR, AALI, AGRO, LSIP, SIMP); nickel UP (NOT in first batch — explicit relief); MDKA was the
#1 foreign net buyer on 19 May (+Rp 343B) on a −3.46% IHSG day. Implementing Permendag/Permen-ESDM expected in the next 4–6 weeks — that's the next material catalyst.
Sources: Bloomberg · Caixin · Argus · OilPrice · SCMP · RancakMedia · Palm Oil Magazine (all 20–21 May 2026)
19–21 May session path + foreign-flow leaderboard.
| Session | Close | Δ | Foreign flow | Driver |
|---|
| Mon 19 May | 6,370 | −3.46% | +Rp 260B | Export-body rumor + global EM risk-off |
| Tue 20 May | 6,318.5 | −0.82% | Mixed | BI 50bp shock + Prabowo confirms export draft |
| Thu 21 May (close) | 6,094.94 | −3.54% | Net foreign sell continued | Bear break — through prior 6,200 floor; commodity exporters dumped, BUMN-channel names bid selectively |
| Fri 22 May (pre-open) | — | — | — | Watch the open; 6,000 is ~1.5% below. Range bid likely from BUMN bank + PTBA names |
Top foreign INFLOWS (19 May): MDKA +Rp 343B · ADRO +Rp 209B · MBMA +Rp 100B · INCO +Rp 85B · DEWA +Rp 60B — exclusively metals/coal, confirming the value-rotation thesis even as the index sold off.
Top foreign OUTFLOWS (19 May): BBCA −Rp 306B · BREN −Rp 115B · BBRI −Rp 100B · AMMN −Rp 91B · CUAN −Rp 84B — banks selling reflects near-term NIM-lag concerns despite Strong Buy consensus (BBCA TP Rp 8,889 / 23-0 buy-sell; BBRI TP Rp 4,380 / 16-2-4).
v2.5 update — 22 May 2026: IHSG broke to 6,094.94 on 21 May (−3.54%). The dashboard's prior 6,200–6,350 range failed; the index closed below 6,100.
Spot is now ~1.5% above the 6,000 psychological floor rather than the ~5% buffer that existed pre-break, materially raising near-term touch probability of 6,000 (likely >80% in next 60d at current implied vol). Meanwhile
FX held (JISDOR 17,677 essentially flat) — a clean
cross-asset divergence in which equities sold the BI hike as growth-negative while FX bought it as defensive-positive.
Probability weights NOT yet revised on this single-session break — Bull 28–35% / Base 50–55% / Bear 12–18% remain. If 6,000 breaks on close in the next 2 weeks, base-case drift should shift down from +5% to +3% and bear weight from 12–18% to 18–22% (action gated on confirmation). P-weighted 12m IHSG implied by spot at 6,094 mechanically falls to ~
6,440 from 6,650 just on lower starting point — even without re-weighting. See
idrtracker.com for FX read.
Update — 20 May 2026 (post-audit): BI hiked 50bp to 5.25%, thesis stress-tested. Banks are ~30% of IHSG / ~51% of MSCI Indonesia (BBCA, BBRI, BMRI dominant). Higher rates expand bank NIM directly. Audit-revised probability weights:
Bull 28-35% (↑), Base 50-55%, Bear 12-18% (↓). Bear case decomposed into IG-to-IG downgrade (mild, more likely) and IG-to-HY transition (severe, less likely); weighted bear drift is now −15% rather than −20%. Probability-weighted 12-month IHSG: ~
6,650 (more constructive than the original 6,450; full range 5,400-7,300). See
Stress Test tab for the audit walkthrough and the
FX Passthrough for the cross-asset linkage to
idrtracker.com.
Update — 9 Jun 2026: BI followed with an off-cycle +25bp to 5.50%, and a Danantara-coordinated Himbara buyback plan was floated; together they drove the +7.57% 9-Jun bank-led rebound off the 5,342 capitulation low. Bank NIM support is reinforced, but both are stabilization tools — the bear-tail re-weight stays held for the weekly audit pending a >6,100 reclaim.
IHSG · Indonesia Composite · ^JKSE
6,162
+1.10% on 22 May (intraday low 5,967) · WoW −6.6% · −21.0% YTD · −18.0% 12m
21 May close (Yahoo Finance) · Updating live on page load
52-week range: 6,095 — 7,900
Foreign net YTD: −Rp 51 tn (extended past prior Rp 49.3T baseline)
Trailing P/E: ~15.9×
Banks weight: ~30% IHSG / 51% MSCI ID
P-weighted 12m: ~6,440 (mechanical, pre-reweight)
Annualized σ: ~17%
Threshold touch probabilities (12-month, drifted GBM)
Break BELOW 5,500
34%
probability in 12m (post-audit)
BULLµ=+15%18%
BASEµ=+5%33%
BEARµ=−15%73%
Break BELOW 6,000
70%
probability in 12m (post-audit)
BULLµ=+15%57%
BASEµ=+5%71%
BEARµ=−15%93%
Reach 7,000
63%
probability in 12m (post-audit)
BULLµ=+15%80%
BASEµ=+5%63%
BEARµ=−15%26%
Reach 8,000
27%
probability in 12m (post-audit)
BULLµ=+15%43%
BASEµ=+5%23%
BEARµ=−15%4%
Read this carefully (post-audit + 21-May break). With spot at 6,095, the 12m touch probability of 6,000 is now >90% on most paths — only ~95 points away, well inside one realized monthly σ of ~3%. The post-audit table below (showing 70%) was calibrated from a 6,290 spot; at 6,094 the 6,000 touch is essentially baseline. 7,000 retains 63% probability under post-audit weights but with the lower starting level the implied path requires ~+14.8%. The central tendency mechanically points to ~6,440 by end-12m (vs the prior 6,650). Touch ≠ settle: an index can touch 5,800 in a sell-off and recover to 6,500 within weeks. The thresholds are barriers, not destinations.
Headline tiles
IHSG (last)
6,095
21 May close. −22% YTD. Below 200-day MA. Stress regime confirmed.
Foreign Net YTD
−Rp 49.3T
Sustained net sell since January. MSCI weight reductions adding pressure.
BI Rate (18-Jun RDG hike)
5.75%
+50bp on 20 May. Banks (51% of IHSG) benefit from NIM expansion.
Trailing P/E
16.4×
Below 10y average (~17.5×). Mild discount to ASEAN peers.
The four signals that matter
SIGNAL · BEAR
Bank-heavy index, foreign-flow dependent
Index composition · concentration risk
The IHSG is structurally bank-heavy: BBCA 22%, BBRI 14%, BMRI 11%, BBNI 4% — banks alone are ~51% of the index by weight. Top 10 stocks are 83% of the index. This means IHSG performance is dominated by a handful of names, and those names are highly sensitive to foreign flows. The Rp 49 trillion of net foreign selling YTD has fallen disproportionately on these large-cap banks, driving the headline decline.
SIGNAL · BULL (post-hike)
BI hike directly expands bank NIM
Monetary transmission to financials
Bank NIM is a function of (loan yield − deposit cost). When BI raises the policy rate by 50bp, loan repricing typically outpaces deposit repricing by 2-4 months, giving banks a temporary NIM tailwind. For BBCA specifically (domestic-funded, low FX exposure, sticky low-cost CASA deposits), the NIM expansion is structural. For BBRI and BMRI, the SOE-lending mandate dampens the benefit but doesn't eliminate it. Net: the BI hike is mechanically positive for index banks.
SIGNAL · WARN
Rating outlook is the cliff
Sovereign downgrade → forced equity sell
All three rating agencies (Moody's, Fitch, S&P) have Indonesia on negative outlook. A one-notch downgrade to BBB−/Baa3 would still be IG, but second downgrade (IG → HY) would trigger forced selling from passive flows, with cascading impact on the bank-heavy IHSG. Empirical base rate: ~40% of clustered negative-outlook actions progress to actual downgrade within 18 months. This is the asymmetric tail risk that justifies the bear-case weight.
SIGNAL · OPPORTUNITY
Valuation modestly cheap vs ASEAN peers
Relative-value lens
IHSG trailing P/E at 16.4× sits modestly below its 10-year average (~17.5×) and below most ASEAN peers (Bursa Malaysia ~18×, SET ~19×, PSEi ~16×, but vs S&P 500 at ~22×). EPS growth consensus for 2026 is +6-8%, against a multiple compression that already prices most macro stress. Mean reversion alone suggests the IHSG is closer to its floor than its ceiling on valuation grounds — but valuation is a poor short-term timing tool.